Posts Tagged ‘warming’

Global warming is a litmus test for US Republicans

James Sensenbrenner attends a news conference on energy and climategate at the US Capitol
James Sensenbrenner at a news conference. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Mitt Romney, arguably the leading Republican candidate for president of the United States in the 2012 election, recently significantly diminished his prospects for obtaining the support he needs from the right wing of his party. How did he do this? He simply declared that he believes the Earth is warming, and that human activities are responsible. To most scientists, such a statement would be considered fairly innocuous, and an accurate assessment of current understanding. But to a large fraction of the US Republican party, this is a completely unacceptable position – ranking alongside gay marriage, gun control and abortion rights. Anthropogenic climate change has become a litmus test for Republicans in the United States.

If you want to appeal to the hard core of the party – those whom you need in order to obtain the party’s nomination – you simply can not acknowledge what almost every national science academy and scientific organisation has accepted for many years. In fact, many other prominent Republicans, sensing the winds of retribution, have already back-tracked on whatever previous statements they might have made, if they contained even a whiff of climate reality. Given the importance of getting the United States on board to obtain a comprehensive international agreement on controlling greenhouse gases, this dismissal of scientific evidence about global warming is both sad and alarming.

Climate scientists on the frontlines of this battle have suffered badly from the poisonous political atmosphere. Rightwing blogs and talk radio demagogues have promoted the idea that climate science is a worthless charade, where data are simply manipulated to obtain a politically motivated result. Scientists have been abused on blogs and via emails and some have even been physically threatened. Government officials have misused their positions to intimidate and harass prominent scientists, following a strategy of attacking the messenger when they don’t like hearing the message. A leading Republican senator asked the Justice Department to investigate 17 climate scientists (myself included) for committing fraud and other crimes. How have we arrived at this sorry state?

In order to understand the current state of play, one has to recognise that the issue of global warming is being completely manipulated by a group of individuals, businesses and organisations that have entrenched financial interests in making sure that the United States does not enact any legislation to control greenhouse gas emissions. At the extreme, these groups believe in complete market fundamentalism – that free markets, stripped of all constraints, will take care of any and all problems that we may face. To bolster this fundamentalist strategy, they provide major financial support to organisations that promote nonsensical ideas, such as global warming is a hoax and the IPCC reports are full of errors.

They also flood the electoral system with money, to ensure that like-minded rightwing politicians are elected to Congress. These politicians then dutifully hold hearings, inviting hand-picked scientists (often with minimal qualifications in climate science) to provide testimony which sows the seeds of doubt about the reality of global warming. The political objectives of these hearings are rarely discussed by the media. The general public just hears that more scientists disagree about an issue they find hard to deal with (which it is) and so they conclude that if scientists can’t agree, why should they support legislation to control emissions? In this way, the cynical but very effective strategy of the rightwing runs its course, and the US sits on its hands while atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations approach levels not seen on Earth for more than 2.5 million years.

If climate scientists were indeed all working together to manipulate data and create a fictitious scenario of the future, that would require a truly remarkable feat of coordination, and a sense of common purpose. What could the motivation of this cohort be? The answer was given to me by Congressman James Sensenbrenner (remarkably, now vice-chairman of the US House committee on science, space and technology). This high-ranking Republican carefully explained that the Kyoto protocol was a conspiracy by developing nations to cripple the US economy. Since these developing countries (apparently) could not compete on a level playing field with the US, they had devised the Kyoto treaty to tilt things in their direction, and climate scientists were complicit in this strategy. To those who subscribe to Sensenbrenner’s bizarre idea, it is only a small step further to frame the argument in patriotic terms. If you support Kyoto (or its goals) you must be anti-American, or at the very least a socialist. Which brings me back to Mitt Romney.

The Republican party in the United States is now in thrall to the extreme right wing, which is in turn financed and coached by those with the financial muscle to promote their narrow ideological agendas. To obtain the backing of these groups, you have to toe the line, and speak the words their dogma requires: global warming is not happening, perhaps even a hoax; whatever warming has occurred is just a natural oscillation; even if humans had something to do with it, it’s not a big deal and we can adapt to it. And besides, we can’t afford to control greenhouse gases, as such action will result in massive job losses. For a politician seeking the party’s nomination for president, it is a dangerous strategy to cross the line on this topic.

To the idealogues who have invested millions to support their political factotums in the US Congress, their money has been well spent, as meaningful legislation to control greenhouse gases has virtually disappeared from the congressional agenda. But not content with that success, they have now drawn a line in the sand for those seeking political office; global warming is off limits entirely. It is not something they want to be discussed at all.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world has recognised the reality of global warming and acknowledged the real dangers that it poses for the future. Although taking steps to address the matter is difficult, many countries have embraced the opportunity to reduce energy consumption, implement conservation strategies and promote new technologies that involve energy production from non-carbon based fuels. Politicians who embrace these strategies represent the future. Those who don’t will simply become footnotes in history. Romney made the right decision – on this topic, at least.

• Raymond S Bradley is author of Global Warming and Political Intimidation, and director of the Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts Amherst






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Environment news, comment and analysis from the Guardian | guardian.co.uk

Court Upholds Endangered Species Act Protection for Polar Bears, Confirms Bears Risk Extinction From Global Warming

WASHINGTON— A federal judge on Thursday upheld a 2008 decision to protect polar bears throughout their range as a “threatened” species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The listing was the result of a 2005 petition and litigation filed by the Center for Biological Diversity, Natural Resources Defense Council and Greenpeace. The polar bear was the first species added to the Endangered Species List due solely to the threat from global warming.  


In Thursday’s decision, U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan dismissed challenges by the state of Alaska and others seeking to strip the polar bear of its protection. Sullivan ruled that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s decision to protect the bear due to the melting of the Arctic sea ice was well supported. The Center, NRDC and Greenpeace had intervened as defendants in the case to support maintaining protections for the bear.


The Center, NRDC and Greenpeace had also challenged the Fish and Wildlife Service’s failure to grant the polar bear the most protective designation possible: a listing as “endangered.” Scientific studies show that, due to the rapid melting of its Arctic habitat, two-thirds of the world’s bears, including all the bears in Alaska, are overwhelmingly likely to be extinct within the next 40 years. Despite finding the evidence of the severity of the polar bear’s plight “troubling,” the court found that the Service’s decision to list the bear as threatened, rather than endangered, based on the evidence available in May 2008, did not “rise to the level of irrationality” and thus upheld the threatened status on these grounds as well.


“This decision is an important affirmation that the science demonstrating that global warming is pushing the polar bear toward extinction simply cannot be denied,” said Kassie Siegel, director of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute.  “While we are disappointed that the polar bear will not receive the more protective endangered status it deserves, maintaining Endangered Species Act listing for the polar bear is a critical part of giving this species back its future.” 


“Polar bears retaining their protections is key — this was a big loss for the climate deniers who find the bears’ plight inconvenient,” said Andrew Wetzler, director of NRDC’s land and wildlife program. “Sure, stronger protections are in order, but today’s court decision confirms that polar bears are on a collision course with global warming. Now that the courts make clear the danger, we need to act quickly to address the looming issue that imperils a lot more than these bears.”


“The court’s decision is bittersweet — it acknowledges the devastating impact of global warming on polar bears, but fails to provide the species with the level of protection it needs to survive into the next century. Greenpeace is pleased that some level of protection will be continued, and we will redouble our efforts to protect the polar bear’s Arctic Ocean habitat,” said Melanie Duchin, Greenpeace Arctic campaigner.


The primary regulatory distinction between the threatened and endangered categories is that, if a species is considered threatened, the Service can issue special rules reducing its protections. For the polar bear, the Bush administration issued a special rule that exempted greenhouse gas emissions, pesticides, mercury and other pollutants that harm the bear from the reach of the Endangered Species Act. The conservation groups’ challenge to that rule is still pending in court.

Contact Info: Kassie Siegel, Center for Biological Diversity, (760) 366-2232 x 302 or
[email protected]

Josh Mogerman, NRDC, (312) 651-7909 or [email protected]

Melanie Duchin, Greenpeace, (907) 227-2700

Website : Center for Biological Diversity

ENN Network News – ENN

Research and Markets: Evidence-Based Climate Science. Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as The Primary Source of Global Warming Is Authored By 8 of the World’s Leading Climate Scientists

June 22, 2011 11:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time 

DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6ba567/evidencebased_cli)
has announced the addition of Elsevier Science and Technology’s new
report “Evidence-Based
Climate Science. Data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of
global warming
” to their offering.

“Evidence-Based
Climate Science. Data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of
global warming”

Global warming and human-induced climate change are perhaps the most
important scientific issues of our time. These issues continue to be
debated in the scientific community and in the media without true
consensus about the role of greenhouse gas emissions as a contributing
factor.

Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data opposing CO2 emissions as the
primary source of global warming objectively gathers and analyzes
scientific data concerning patterns of past climate changes, influences
of changes in ocean temperatures, the effect of solar variation on
global climate, and the effect of CO2 on global climate to clearly and
objectively present counter-global-warming evidence not embraced by
proponents of CO2.

  • An unbiased, evidence-based analysis of the scientific data concerning
    climate change and global warming
  • Authored by 8 of the world’s leading climate scientists, each with
    more than 25 years of experience in the field
  • Extensive analysis of the physics of CO2 as a greenhouse gas and its
    role in global warming
  • Comprehensive citations, references, and bibliography
  • Adaptation strategies are presented as alternative reactions to
    greenhouse gas emission reductions

Key Topics Covered:

  • GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVES
  • Geologic evidence of recurring climate cycles and their implications
    for the cause of global climate changes
  • Evidence for synchronous global climatic events: Cosmogenic exposure
    ages of glaciations
  • TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS
  • A critical look at surface temperature records
  • 2010-the hottest year on record?
  • THE ROLE OF OCEANS
  • Relationship of Multidecadal Global Temperatures to Multidecadal
    Oceanic Oscillations
  • Setting the frames of expected future sea level changes by exploring
    past geological sea level records
  • The Maldives: a measure of sea level changes and sea level ethics
  • Arctic sea ice
  • Have increases in CO2 contributed to the recent large upswing in
    Atlantic basin major hurricanes since 1995?
  • SOLAR ACTIVITY
  • Solar changes and the climate
  • The current solar minimum and consequences for climate
  • Total solar irradiance satellite composites and their phenomenological
    effect on climate
  • Global brightening and climate sensitivity
  • The relationship of sunspot cycles to gravitational stresses on the sun
  • MODELING
  • A simple model to examine the relationship between atmospheric CO2
    concentration, and ocean and land surface temperatures

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6ba567/evidencebased_cli

Business Wire Environment News

Is the sun causing global warming?

Delaram Afghanistan: A man walks on the street as the sun sets

Is the sun causing global warming? Photograph: Marko Djurica/Reuters

Over the very long term, variations in Earth’s orbit that shape where and when sunlight reaches the planet are the main cause of ice ages, but this doesn’t apply to our current situation. It’s true that the Sun has produced more sunspots in recent decades than it did in the early 1800s. However, this mainly reflects an increase in the ultraviolet range of sunlight, which is only a tiny part of the solar spectrum.

In fact, the total solar energy reaching Earth changes very little over time. Across the 11-year solar cycle, it varies by less than 0.1%, and even across the period since the little ice age chill of 1750, solar output climbed no more than about 0.12%, according to the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Subsequent estimates by Judith Lean of the Naval Research Laboratory and others have pegged the solar contribution to 20th-century warming at 10% or less. And a recent analysis of solar trends suggests that – over the last few decades – the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling effect, rather than accounting for any of the observed warming.

There’s still a question mark or two when it comes to ultraviolet radiation, where the lion’s share of solar variability occurs. It’s possible that UV rays interact with ozone in the stratosphere in a way that inhibits low-level cloud formation and thereby allows more sunlight to reach the earth, but there is no strong evidence to suggest that this is a significant factor in practice.

This is an edited extract from The Rough Guide to Climate Change by Robert Henson.

• This answer last updated: 26.05.2011
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Related questions
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Environment news, comment and analysis from the Guardian | guardian.co.uk

Clearing Up Confusion: The Recent Cold Snap and Global Warming

Our bitter cold winter has become one of the hottest topics of conversation in America.

Specifically, people are talking about how a severe cold snap can occur at the same time as global warming. If you haven’t seen it yet, check out the debate on the Washington Post website.  In this post, I’ll try to clear up two of the issues that emerged from that debate:

  1. What does a particular cold spell say about global warming, and
  2. If the recent cold spell doesn’t disprove global warming, does that also mean that other kinds of extreme weather, like heat waves, aren't caused by global warming?

Climate versus weather

All of the Post’s panelists were careful enough to explain the difference between weather and climate: Climate refers to the average weather over a long period. For the most part, they did not fall for the common mistake of interpreting a cold spell as evidence against global warming.

Here's what's been happening with the weather recently: There have indeed been below-average temperatures recently in much of the eastern U.S. and in parts of Europe, Russia, northern China, and northern India. But at the same time, there were above-average temperatures in the western U.S., eastern Canada and Greenland, some other parts of the Arctic, North Africa and Central Asia, as this map shows.

NOAA map of worldwide temperatures

This distinct pattern of temperatures was caused by an unusually persistent version of an atmospheric flow pattern known as a “Greenland block.”  This Greenland block diverted frigid Arctic air far to the south in eastern North America and Europe. (More about it on the Weather Channel: "Why So Cold? Blame the Greenland Block.")

It’s important to look at weather events like cold snaps in context—we can have a relatively brief spell of cold weather in certain regions even while the global climate is warming.  All the evidence shows that the world overall has been warming over the past several decades. (See a chart in a post on this same topic by Lisa Moore in 2008.)

So how do we know if the climate is warming? We look at a wide range of long-term trends. Along with rising air and ocean temperatures, the other signs of a warming climate include rising sea level, retreat of glaciers in most regions, rapid shrinkage of summer sea ice in the Arctic, and shifts in species distributions and seasonal behavior.

Global warming does cause more extreme weather

Although the Post’s panelists were accurate on the first issue, there could have been more discussion on the fact that global warming does have an effect on some kinds of extreme weather. One of the panelists even claimed that extreme events like heat waves cannot be used as evidence of global warming. That is wrong, so let's look at how the frequency and intensity of certain extreme weather events are expected to increase under global warming.

Records indicate that there has already been an increase in intensity and frequency of heat waves and heavy rainfall in many parts of the world over the past several decades.  (See “Frequently Asked Question” number 3.3 excerpted from the 2007 IPCC report [PDF].)  Why? Global warming drives a rise in average temperature and atmospheric moisture, promoting more heat waves and torrential downpours. On top of that, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns caused by global warming are also thought to contribute to stronger heat waves.

There will still be variations from year to year, but on average, these extreme events will increase over time as the Earth warms.  On the other hand, extremely cold temperatures are becoming less common — but can still occur — as heat builds up in the climate system.

Of course, individual weather events should not be blamed on global warming, just as an individual cold snap doesn’t disprove global warming. EDF has been careful not to attribute individual events to global warming.  Instead, we point to examples of what we expect to see more and more of in the future if we don’t fight global warming.

And with the trends in extreme weather we’re already seeing, that future ain’t lookin’ pretty.

Further information:

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Alternative futures of a warming world: Potential human responses to climate change will be integrated into future models

An international team of climate scientists will take a new approach to modeling Earth’s climate future. The next set of models will include, for the first time, tightly linked analyses of greenhouse gas emissions, projections of Earth’s climate, impacts of climate change, and human decision-making. This approach will influence the next international scientific assessment undertaken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Further information:

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Global Warming May Hurt Some Poor Populations

redOrbit: The impact of global warming on food prices and hunger could be large over the next 20 years, according to a new Stanford University study. Researchers say that higher temperatures could significantly reduce yields of wheat, rice and maize – dietary staples for tens of millions of poor people who subsist on less than $1 a day. The resulting crop shortages would likely cause food prices to rise and drive many into poverty. But even as some people are hurt, others would be helped out of …

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Study: Warming to bring stronger hurricanes

Associated Press: Top researchers now agree that the world is likely to get stronger but fewer hurricanes in the future because of global warming, seeming to settle a scientific debate on the subject. But they say there’s not enough evidence yet to tell whether that effect has already begun. Since just before Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana and Mississippi in 2005, dueling scientific papers have clashed about whether global warming is worsening hurricanes and will do so in the future. The new study …

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The Frank Luntz Poll About Global Warming: Still Hot News

Remember the Frank Luntz poll we told you about last week?  The prominent pollster found bipartisan support for a strong climate and clean energy bill, and it's been generating a lot of buzz.

Here are just a few of the many stories about it:

  • True/Slant talks about Luntz's surprising views on the climate issue, saying he's "teaming up with Fred Krupp of all people" …
  • The Vine has an even better summary of the "strange bedfellows" effect:

It was a little surprising to see [Luntz] this morning at the National Press Club, teaming up with the Environmental Defense Fund on a new set of poll findings about climate legislation. Even Luntz couldn't help joking about it: "When Fred asked me to do this with him, I asked, 'Do you know who I am?'

  • And Climate Progress and Treehugger both talk about the meaning of poll's bipartisan results in the wake of recent Democratic election losses.

If you'd like to skip the news clips and see for yourself, in addition to the full audio we shared earlier, we now have 5 minutes of highlights:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSrwjINxEio

Further information:

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Insight: warming and glacier shrinking in the Tibetan Plateau

Significant warming is causing change in the cryosphere

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