Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
Posts Tagged ‘Climate’
Climate change: what do models predict for Europe?
Posted by admin on May 3rd, 2012
The maps have been produced in Eye on Earth, a global public information service which allows users to integrate many different kinds of information, for example combining different map layers.
Europe will be on average 1.5° C warmer in the period 2021-2050 than the period 1960-1990, according to the ensemble of regional climate projections from the ENSEMBLES project. The highest warming is projected over the eastern Scandinavia, and southern and south-eastern Europe. All areas of the continent will warm by a minimum of approximately 0.4° C and a maximum of 2.5° C, the projections indicate.
View larger map on Eye on Earth
Annual temperature changes 2021 – 2050.
Looking further ahead to the period 2071-2100, the models predict that Europe will be on average 3 °C warmer than 1960-1990. In north eastern Scandinavia the temperature change could be up to 6° C higher than the reference period, while the Mediterranean basin and parts of Eastern Europe will also see much bigger changes than elsewhere. All areas are expected to see average annual temperatures at least 1.5° C warmer than the reference period.
Interestingly, there are great differences between summer and winter – the maps show the winters will see the greatest change in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, while the biggest temperature increases in the summer will be around the Mediterranean.
While a few degrees increase may not seem significant, it is important to note that these are average annual temperatures, potentially masking large extremes. For example, during the period 2021 – 2050 summer in some parts of the Mediterranean is expected to be upto 2.5° C warmer than 1961-1990. Higher temperatures lead to an increase in number of heat waves and droughts, which have great impact on water supply, agriculture production and human health.
View larger map on Eye on Earth
Annual changes in precipitation 2021-2050.
Projections of annual precipitation show a clear split between decrease and increase of precipitation over Europe. For average annual precipitation, in northern regions models project an increase and in southern/ Mediterranean regions a decrease is projected – showing up to 15% decrease in the south, and a up to 15 % increase in the north.
For the period 2021-2050 the projections show winter precipitation will increase all over Europe (although North Africa looks like it could be significantly drier than previously will up to 30 % in precipitation decrease), while summer precipitation will decrease. Both of these trends are more pronounced in the maps showing projections for the period 2071-2100.
What does this mean?
Increasing precipitation in northern part can lead to more flood events in the future. The clear projection of decreasing precipitation in southern part together with an increase of temperature will probably lead to more frequent and longer droughts, which will have significant effects on agriculture and tourism industries, especially in the Mediterranean area.
Agriculture is extremely water-intensive in some Mediterranean countries, accounting for up to 80% of water use. These maps show that many countries will need to adapt their agricultural systems to deal with less water, or water at different times of year.
The climate change data behind the maps comes from 25 different Regional Climate models, run in the frame of ENSEMBLES project, under A1B emission scenario. This particular scenario assumes rapid economic growth, a global population that grows to 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. Income and lifestyles converge across different regions, and new and efficient technologies are taken up. Energy is expected to come from a range of renewable and fossil sources.
It is important to note that this is just one scenario, so this outcome is not certain. By rapidly cutting emissions – for example by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy technologies – the world could slow the pace of climate change, and the impacts seen on these maps could be much reduced.
But Europe will also need to adapt. The EEA and the European Commission recently launched Climate-ADAPT, a web resource aimed at policy makers and ‘practitioners’ – engineers, planners and administrators – who can learn from the experience of others facing similar challenges already carrying out adaptation actions elsewhere. Climate-ADAPT includes the maps featured here and a wealth of other information.
Maps
Temperature
Precipitation
Your help needed to develop ‘Climate Change Impacts Report Cards’
Posted by admin on May 1st, 2012
A new project to develop a series of ‘Climate Change Impacts Report Cards’ for the terrestrial and freshwater environments has started under the Living With Environmental Change programme, supported by Defra and NERC.
These report cards will be accessible, high level summaries of the science, based on more detailed supporting papers, with thorough peer review of both the supporting papers and the report card itself. The audience includes policy makers, business and a wide range of other stakeholders, as well as the research community. The concept is based on the very successful report cards produced by the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership for the marine environment.
Two cards are currently being developed, one on water issues and one on biodiversity. The development of the biodiversity card is being led by Mike Morecroft and Lydia Speakman at Natural England: if you are interested in getting involved, or would like to know more, please email [email protected].
Tags: Climate Change Impacts, Living with Environmental Change, LWEC, Natural England
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Wind Farm Climate Change Impact Studied
Posted by admin on April 30th, 2012
Wind farms can affect localised weather conditions, according to new US research.
From studying the effect in Texas, the researchers have reported that overnight temperatures are higher in areas where wind turbine arrays are present. To make this assessment, they drew on satellite data and their findings now serve to back up earlier research which came to the same conclusion.
The researchers think that this happens as a result of the turbines’ blades pushing warm air downwards and, potentially, the phenomenon has significant implications for climate change.
Global warming’s partly-driven by industrial fossil fuel burning processes and, in recent times, wind power’s been introduced en masse as one way of producing cleaner and greener energy. But, if wind turbines are actually making the world warmer anyway, wind power’s long-term benefits might not be as deeply-grounded as first thought.
The researchers involved in this wind turbine weather research hailed from Albany’s State University of New York and examined meteorological records collected over an eight-year period in Texas, which hosts some of the largest wind farms on Earth. Overall, they found temperatures of up to 0.72 degrees Celsius higher around wind farms, compared to those recorded for surrounding land.
‘We attribute this warming primarily to wind farms”, the researchers wrote in their wind farm climate change study, now published by Nature Climate Change. ‘These changes, if spatially large enough, may have noticeable impacts on local to regional weather and climate.’
They continued: ‘Given the present installed capacity and the projected installation across the world, this study draws attention to an important issue that requires further investigation. We need to better understand the system with observations and better describe and model the complex processes involved to predict how wind farms may affect future weather and climate.’
Combined, the global wind turbine population recorded at the end of 2011 had a capacity of 238GW – over 20 per cent more than in December 2010 – and data from the Global Wind Energy Council suggests that, in under five years time, there could be over twice that amount in place.
Wind power can help defeat climate change
Posted by admin on April 30th, 2012
Key Allies Join Second Front in Climate War: Five initiatives launched targeting short-lived climate pollutants black carbon, methane, and HFCs
Posted by admin on April 28th, 2012
Stockholm, 24 April 2012. The second front in the war against climate change just got major reinforcements in the effort to reduce black carbon (soot), methane, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), collectively known as short-lived climate pollutants because they remain in the air to warm the Earth for only a few days to a decade and a half. Reducing them can cut the rate of global warming by half or more for the next 30 to 40 years, providing critical protection for the Arctic, Himalayas, and other vulnerable regions, while saving millions of lives a year and reducing crop damage, providing a substantial boost for development.
The European Union, Norway, Japan, Nigeria, Colombia, and the World Bank announced today that they have joined the Coalition for Climate and Clean Air to Reduce Short-lived Climate Pollutants, launched in February by three developing (Mexico, Ghana, and Bangladesh) and three developed countries (Sweden, US, and Canada), along with the United Nations Environment Programme. The Coalition concluded its inaugural Ministerial meeting today in Stockholm. Many other countries are poised to join shortly.
Initial funding for the Coalition has been provided by the US and Canada. Sweden and Norway announced today that they would contribute as well. The World Bank announced they have $ 12 billion in their portfolio that can contribute to the Coalition goals, and noted the need for urgent action to reduce the short-lived climate pollutants.
Five initiatives aimed at accelerating and scaling-up action against the short-lived pollutants were approved by the Ministers meeting in Stockholm yesterday and today. (They are listed in the appendix.)
Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, who attended the inaugural meeting in Stockholm, stated, “The Coalition may be the single most important development for climate protection in the past ten years. It focuses on fast-action climate mitigation that can be done today with existing technologies by willing partners. It has the potential not only to reduce a major part of climate pollution, but to build the momentum and confidence we need to successfully manage carbon dioxide from energy production, which is essential for keeping the Planet’s long term temperature increase to an acceptable level.”
Many scientists calculate that global temperature cannot increase more than 2°C above pre-Industrial levels without risking major and perhaps catastrophic climate impacts, including devastating sea-level rise and punishing storm surges, as well as droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. Major cuts in carbon dioxide are essential to stay below 2°C in the longer term, along with cuts to the short-lived climate pollutants.
Zaelke said, “To win the climate war, we need to cut both the short-lived climate pollutants and long-lived carbon dioxide, the most damaging gas. Fortunately, we’re gaining allies quickly in the second front of the fight against black carbon, methane, and HFCs. A victory on this front will build the confidence we need to win the war.” The short-lived climate pollutants are responsible for 40 to 45% of all warming, with carbon dioxide, a substantial portion of which remains in the air for millennia, responsible for the other 55-60%.
Appendix
[This is excerpted from UNEP’s press release today on the Coalition meeting]
Assessment and Go-Ahead for Scaled-up Initiatives
The meeting assessed around a dozen initiatives proposed by developed and developing countries for fast and federated action on short lived climate pollutants including many happening already at the national level.
Delegates took forward five to be approved for rapid implementation by ministers on the final day. Those given the green light include:
- Fast action on diesel emissions including from heavy duty vehicles and engines
Studies show that reductions are possible by addressing emissions from the freight transportation supply chain, through city action plans, and adoption of a range of measures for reducing sulphur in fuels and vehicle emissions
- Upgrading old inefficient brick kilns which are a significant source of black carbon emissions
Mexico has for example [20,000] small and medium-sized brick kilns and the design of many of the [6,000] in Bangladesh hark back to the 1900s.
- Accelerating the reduction of methane emissions from landfills
World-wide the waste management sector contributes about 11% of global methane emissions, and the coalition will work with cities to reduce methane emissions from landfills by improving strategic municipal solid waste planning and providing technical assistance.
- Speeding up cuts in methane and other emissions from the oil and gas industry
Natural gas venting and leakage from the oil and gas industry accounts for over one fifth of global man-made emissions of methane: Flaring at oil installations generate both methane and black carbon emissions. An estimated one third of leaks and venting can be cut using existing technologies at low cost.
- Accelerating alternatives to HFCs
HFCs are being rapidly introduced as replacements to chemicals that can damage the ozone layer—the Earth’s protective shield that filters out hazardous ultra violet light.
The Coalition aims to fast track more environmentally-friendly and cost effective alternatives and technologies to avoid HFC growth.
- Additional initiatives – including a proposal by Ghana on agricultural/forest open burning and a proposal by Bangladesh on cookstoves – would be further developed over the coming weeks.
Trust Fund Established
To support the Coalition’s efforts, a new Trust Fund managed by a UNEP-hosted secretariat was agreed today.
Initial financing pledges for the Coalition now amount to some $ 16.7 million with significantly more funds expected over the coming 12 months.
Science Advisory Panel
Sound science has underpinned the formation of the Coalition and will guide its work into the future. Ministers today asked three luminaries involved in short lived climate pollutant work to advise them on the formation of a dedicated world-class Science Advisory Panel to provide scientific advice to the Coalition.
The advice will be provided by Drew Shindell of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Mario Molina, the distinguished Mexican chemist and 1995 Nobel Prize co-winner and Veerabhadran Ramanathan, chair of the UNEP Atmospheric Brown Cloud project based at the University of California San Diego,
Coalition Web Site Goes Live
The Coalition today also unveiled a dedicated web site to support dissemination of information about the initiative’s role and partners http://www.unep.org/ccac/
Notes to Editors
Quotes from Other Newly Joining Partners
Colombia
Frank Pearl, the Colombian Minister of the Environment and Sustainable Development, said:” “Colombia has recognized for some time the urgency of acting on these short lived climate pollutants including the impacts of black carbon on public health and the accelerated melting of glaciers the high mountain areas of Latin America”.
“Colombia is among several countries in our region to act on soot particles from vehicles and other contaminating sources as well as emissions that are triggering tropospheric or ground level ozone—another short lived climate pollutants,” he said.
“In joining the Coalition we see not only potential national and global benefits but Colombia plans to act as a regional hub, reaching out to other countries in Latin America in order to generate regional opportunities for sustainable development,” said Mr Pearl.
Nigeria
Mrs Hadiza Ibrahim Mailafia , Nigerian Minister of the Environment said: “Nigeria is delighted to be a new member of the Coalition. It is estimated that 95,000 women in my country die each year prematurely because of black carbon emissions from source such as inefficient cook stoves–this is a conservative estimate. Meanwhile there are enormous opportunities for reducing methane emissions from sources such as the oil and gas industry and landfills that can benefit Nigeria and its people and the wider regional and global ambitions to combat climate change in a cost effective and economic way”.
“We look to encourage more countries within Africa and beyond to join this inspiring initiative so that fast action can be federated everywhere in order to save lives, improve food security and tackle climate change which challenges the future of the poor and the vulnerable exponentially,” she added.
Norway
Bård Vegar Solhjell, the Norwegian Minister of the Environment, said: “Norway is delighted to join the Coalition. It unites our country’s interest in achieving national sustainability with international responsibilities in the areas of health, food security, climate and development”.
“There are many international initiatives addressing these short term pollutants, and Norway is participating in several of them. In this Coalition the United Nations Environment Program participates, both as partner and as Secretariat for the Coalition. This is a very wise decision, which provides credibility and leverage and increases the value of the Coalition´s work”, he added.
“Finally it echoes to Norway’s interest in the Green Economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication—a key issue for the upcoming Rio+20 Summit in June—in which well-targeted policy and financial interventions can catalyze benefits across multiple fronts,” said Mr Solhjell.
World Bank
“From multi-billion dollar investments in clean energy each year to climate smart solutions for agriculture and cities, the Bank already targets short-term environmental pollutants in developing countries through our lending, data and evidence based knowledge sharing and technical assistance. But, we can achieve even more by working as a coalition,” said Rachel Kyte, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development.
“This is the most important decade for action on climate change”, Kyte said. “But with a global treaty that will speed the curbing of carbon dioxide many years off, the climate and clean air coalition puts a practical new deal on the table – one that helps slow global warming while reducing the soot and smog that is damaging food crops and health worldwide, undermining growth and development.”
Aims of the Coalition
- To catalyze the speed and the scale of action on short lived climate pollutants
- Enhance existing and develop new national actions to address mitigation gaps
- Encourage existing and new regional actions
- Reinforce and track existing efforts to reduce these pollutants, promoting opportunities for greater international coordination and developing and improving inventories
- Identify barriers to action and seeking to surmount them
- Promote best practices or available technologies and showcase successful efforts to address short lived climate forcers
- Improve understanding of and review scientific progress on short lived climate pollutants, their impacts and benefits of mitigation and dissemination of knowledge; and
- Mobilize targeted support for those developing countries that require resources to develop their capacity and to implement actions consistent with national strategies to support sustainable development
The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Term Climate Pollutants was launched in Washington DC on 17 February 2012.
http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/HFC_report.pdf
http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/Black_Carbon.pdf
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6065/183
For More Information Please Contact Nick Nuttall, Acting Director UNEP Division of Communications and Public Information/UNEP Spokesperson, on Tel: +254 733 632755, E-mail: [email protected]
Contact Info: Ella Haines: +1.202.338.1300, [email protected]
Website : Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development
Mainstreaming environment and climate change: health
Posted by admin on April 28th, 2012
Authors:
; iied
Publisher:
[publisher information not available], 2011
Nearly one quarter of the global disease burden can be attributed to the environment. Indoor air pollution, vector-borne disease, limited access to clean water and sanitation and poor land management are among the biggest killers, costing more than 100 million disability-adjusted life years every year. Changing climates are set to worsen the problem — by 2030, an estimated 310 million people are expected to have suffered ill health from climate change. Nine out of ten of these people will be in developing countries. Improving environmental health — raising its profile at national, state and local levels, and integrating environmental health issues into development plans and activities — is critical if we are to reduce poverty and meet the Millennium Development Goals.
From REDD to HEDD: WRM contibution to the Convention on Climate Change
Posted by admin on April 21st, 2012
Authors:
Publisher:
World Rainforest Movement , 2008
It is often asserted that because deforestation is responsible for 20% of greenhouse gas emissions, it is also responsible for 20% of climate change. The implication is clear: other things being equal, 20% of the world’s climate change mitigation efforts should go toward trying to halt deforestation. However, this argument is not valid. Carbon released from deforestation does not increase the total amount of carbon being exchanged among the atmosphere, the oceans, soils, forests, and so on. Carbon released from fossil fuels, on the other hand, does increase this above-ground carbon pool – adding to the difficulty of keeping excess carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
Mexico follows Britain and Scotland to start enacting climate law
Posted by admin on April 20th, 2012
April 20th, 2012 by Sam Taylor
Mexico today followed the UK and Scotland’s footsteps by enacting ambitious climate change legislation.
Mexico’s Senate voted to favour the climate law unanimously. The move makes the North American country the world’s third nation to begin enshrining emissions-reduction targets into nationwide laws. The UK and Scotland were the only countries to take up such action until now.
Mexico’s new law will see it cutting emissions by at least 50 per cent by the year 2050 with international support while generating 35 per cent of all electricity from reliably clean sources by the year 2024. Remarkably, the law covers emissions that come from deforestation and degradation, as well as the adaptation of Mexican people and ecosystems to new climate changes. It also commits to phasing-out all fossil subsidies while making renewables competitive.
WWF, the Environmental group, today welcomed the outcome of the Mexican vote and said it proved that Britain and Scotland’s recent Climate Change Acts are a force for further action elsewhere. Britain passed the planet’s first-ever climate change legislation back in 2008, which then set a target for the an 80 per cent reduction in emissions by the year 2050. In 2009, Scotland’s Parliament backed the strongest legislation in the world, which aims to tackle climate change by cutting the small nation’s total CO2 emissions by around 42 per cent by the year 2020.
Weather Underground Launches New Climate Change Center in Honor of Earth Day
Posted by admin on April 19th, 2012
SOURCE: Weather Underground
New Resource Center Provides Information on the Effects of Our Warming Climate and What We Can Do to Change It
SAN FRANCISCO, CA–(Marketwire – Apr 19, 2012) – Weather Underground, the world’s first online weather service, announced today that it has added a new Climate Change Center to its popular site, wunderground.com. The primary goal of the new center is to present users with hard facts about how climate is changing in their local neighborhoods and empower people to form their own opinions on the climate change debate. The center is now live at wunderground.com/climate.
To understand how climate change is affecting local neighborhoods, users can access the Local Climate Change tool to review data from local weather stations reporting conditions from as far back as the early 1700s. In addition, this feature has the ability to see how climate could change in the future, as far forward as year 2100.
“Earth’s climate has changed dramatically in recent years, and there is strong agreement among climate scientists that the current climate changes are mostly due to human activities. It is important for people to understand the changes happening to our atmosphere and what we can do about them,” said Dr. Jeff Masters, co-Founder and Director of Meteorology at Weather Underground. “The Climate Change Center provides some unique resources to do just that.”
The ‘Skeptical Science’ section debunks common myths about climate change. The new center also features blogs and videos for users looking to learn even more about the science behind climate change and understand how to reduce personal impact. With educational resources covering topics such as the greenhouse effect, Arctic sea ice decline, and extreme weather, the Climate Change Center will appeal to scientists, students, and anyone interested in the science behind climate change.
“Our new Climate Change Center is a one-stop shop for information about our warming climate,” according to Weather Underground Climatologist Angela Fritz. “We want people to understand that climate change is not intangible, especially when looking at how your own neighborhood is being affected. Our ultimate goal is for people to use our content and resources to understand that climate change is happening and we can do something about it.”
About Weather Underground
The world’s first online weather service, Weather Underground is committed to delivering the most comprehensive, reliable weather information possible. Home to more than 20 million users and weather provider to partners such as Google, The Associated Press and CBS, the company’s state-of-the-art technology monitors conditions and forecasts for locations across the world. With more than 24,000 users contributing local observations from personal weather stations, Weather Underground is able to provide up-to-the-minute weather conditions for the most finely targeted areas. In addition to serving free online weather information to millions of unique users every month, Weather Underground delivers custom-designed weather page solutions to an array of businesses and media clients — both online and in print.