Commenting on today’s (Monday
25 March) warning from Professor Sir John Beddington, the Government’s
out-going chief scientific adviser, on the urgent need to tackle climate
change, Friends of the Earth’s Policy and Campaigns Director Craig Bennett
said:
“Climate change is one of the
biggest threats the planet faces – and unless we urgently act to cut emissions
we face an economic and environmental catastrophe.
“From droughts and floods to
snow storms, Britain is increasingly battered by extreme weather.
“Ministers must listen to
Professor Beddington and other leading scientists and slash UK emissions -
starting with an amendment in the Energy Bill to decarbonise the power sector
by 2030.”
ENDS
If you’re a journalist looking for press information please contact the Friends of the Earth media team on 020 7566 1649.
Tropical forests are surprisingly resilient to climate change.
According to a new study, rainforests are unlikely to perish as a consequence of the predicted greenhouse gas rise during this century. This analysis counters previous research that anticipated one of the potential results of climate change to be the catastrophic demise of the Amazon rainforest.
In the most comprehensive study of its type, an international scientist team imitated the emission effects of a business-as-usual scenario on the carbon amounts sealed in rainforests across Africa, Asia, Central America and Amazonia through to the end of the century. Results were compared from 22 global varying climate models along with different land-surface process models. In every simulation but one, tropical forests within the three regions preserved their carbon stocks regardless of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide rising throughout the century.
Climate modeller at the UK’s Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford and lead author, Chris Huntingford, said the research provides steady evidence for tropical rainforest resilience. But, he added, uncertainties remain.
For example, regional climate change is difficult to predict. For another, climate is represented differently in each global climate model.
Developed by the British Met Office, the HadCM3 model was used for the single simulation that forecast the loss of biomass for the Central American and Amazonian tropical forests in the study. That very same model generated the earlier predictions that climate change would result in a huge loss in Amazon rainforest.
The University of Exeter’s Climate Scientist Peter Cox was involved both in this study and the previous one. Unlike other climate models, he explains that HadCM3 forecasts extreme drying for the future Amazon basin, which alters the outcome for the forests there.
With improved modeling and new data however, this drying out has become a lot less likely.
“This has been a big issue in science for many years,” says Daniel Nepstad, a forest ecologist who directs the San Francisco- based Amazon Environmental Research Institute, “and the emerging view is that there is less sensitivity in tropical forests for climate-driven dieback”.
A collaborative effort in Cambridge produces teaching-materials website: www.birdlife.org/ community/teaching-materials-cci. Photo: Ajith, U.; flickr.com
To be able to teach something, you have to have mastered it yourself. So training conservationists worldwide how to teach othersto take local action for nature in a changing climate is no easy task.
Fortunately, in a project funded and facilitated by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative (CCI – a unique collaboration between conservation organisations clustered around Cambridge, including BirdLife, and the University of Cambridge), 25 authors and contributors from nine organisations have the combined experience and expertise to achieve just that. The collective effort also went even further, drawing in know-how from institutions outside of Cambridge.
By fostering collaborations between CCI partners, CCI was the spark that ignited the project in 2010. Entitled ‘Preparing teaching materials and building capacity to link biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services and climate change’, the project today launches a new teaching-materials website that provides free training factsheets on 10 prioritised topics, targeted at early- to mid- career conservation practitioners. These training materials and tools not only aim to make the complex subjects of biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate change clearly understandable, but in a way that enables readers to then take this deepened knowledge forward to train others.
“Think of this project as a seed-dispersing machine, with 10 arms that are scattering packets of knowledge out to conservationists worldwide. Once sowed, these seeds have the potential to make a real impact on the ground for nature and people as the climate changes. This is capacity building for conservation,” said Kiragu Mwangi, Project Leader and Conservation Leadership Programme Manager.
As the impacts of climate change become more apparent, the need for a worldwide line-up of enthusiastic conservation leaders who understand the intricacies of climate change’s effects on nature and people has never been greater. This is why BirdLife International, Conservation International, Fauna & Flora International, the Wildlife Conservation Society, the Conservation Leadership Programme, the Tropical Biology Association, UNEP-WCMC, The Mediterranean Science Commission and the University of Cambridge joined forces for the project, which proved a worthwhile challenge.
“Simplifying such broad and interlinking topics so that they can be used for teaching turned out to require plenty of coffee on the table at meetings,” said Robert Munroe, Climate Change Officer at BirdLife who was part of the technical team that prepared the teaching materials. “This is where the power of collaboration became important, with a diverse team that was able to draw from knowledge experienced across the globe.”
The factsheets cover topics such as: ‘climate change’, ‘reducing impacts of climate change on biodiversity and adaptive management’, and ‘policy responses for the future’. Each one contains condensed and clear information identified and referenced by contributors; combined with Case Studies that demonstrate the material in action; Key Points; Key Questions and Key Tools for trainees to discover and utilise.
The production of the material on the topic ‘Valuing nature and evaluating environmental risk’ pulled in expertise from outside of Cambridge. Environmental economists from Conservation International (CI) and The Mediterranean Science Commission (CIESM), in conjunction with the Cambridge Programme for Sustainable Leadership, shaped how the material could be used by conservationists and business professionals alike.
The collaboration led to an evolution of the project aims. Originally targeted at business leaders as well as conservationists, the outside expertise adjusted the material to inform conservationists how instead they themselves can frame the material to business leaders. This improved the clarity of the resources and will mean those with local knowledge can make better-informed local changes.
Early- to mid- career conservationists at the Conservation Leadership Programme workshop in China where training tools were tested
To help fine-tune the training materials, as well as build capacity, training workshops organised by the Tropical Biology Association in Arusha, Tanzania, June 2011, and by BirdLife International in Kumming, China, May 2012, allowed the tools to be tested. For example, one issue identified was that even if the bigger picture of an issue is understood, articulating a discussion with local stakeholders on it – key to starting a project or pioneering a change – is more difficult. This issue, and others highlighted by conservation practitioners from many different countries, were incorporated back into the development of the training materials.
While it may have taken time to decide on the specific ingredients during the preparation phase, this project was definitely not a case of ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’. Facilitated by CCI, the collaboration of many ‘master-chefs’ of conservation in the production of these teaching materials has made the important task of training conservationists worldwide a lot easier.
Dr Mike Rands, Executive Director of CCI, highlighted the value of the project:
“Understanding the interconnections between biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services and climate change is imperative to sustainable living and the quality of all life on Earth. This innovative project has created vital and practical materials for capacity building that I hope will be significant in transforming decision making for the natural world.”
Basang Lamao, an attendee to the workshop in China, is looking forward to using her strengthened understanding of climate change issues, boding well for the use of these tools in the future.
“I will be one of the first people to share such information with local people on the Tibetan Plateau,” she said.
To mark International Women’s Day, IUCN is celebrating the progress made in recognising the role of women in national and regional climate change agendas.
It will assist organisations such as local authorities, health services, the Fire Service, Natural Resources Wales and the National Park Authorities assess how they may be affected by climate change and produce plans to manage it.
For example, a health board will look at how extreme weather events will impact on their ability to maintain service levels and if necessary handle extra numbers of patients. Issues to consider in a changing climate include keeping buildings open, staffing them, providing an ambulance service and dealing with extra demands on services.
Environment Minister, John Griffiths, said:
“It is very apt that we are launching this guidance during Climate Week. The Welsh Government is committed to taking action on things that benefit people’s everyday lives.
“We are all aware of the impact our changing, and at times extreme, weather can have on our neighbourhoods, cities and country. The guidance being published today provides practical advice for public bodies to put in place sustainable plans to manage it.
“I look forward to seeing how organisations across Wales find positive solutions to address these challenges.”
Further guidance and support for organisations is being issued over the next few weeks.
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwire – March 1, 2013) - ERA Carbon Offsets Ltd. (“ERA” or the “Company”) (TSX VENTURE:ESR) is pleased to announce that it has received TSX Venture approval for the company to change its name to “Offsetters Climate Solutions Inc.”, which was recently approved by resolution by the Directors of the Company. The name change will come into effect on Monday March 4, 2013, and the company will commence trading on the TSX Venture Exchange at the opening of market on March 4, 2013 under the new symbol “COO”. The CUSIP number assigned to the Company’s shares following the name change is CA 6762431089 (ISIN:676243108).
The corporate renaming follows the December 14, 2012 closing of the acquisition of Offsetters Clean Technology and Carbon Credit Corp by ERA Carbon Offsets Ltd. The change of name to Offsetters Climate Solutions reflects the strategic focus of the newly merged entity, which is a leading international carbon project developer, a full service advisory on corporate sustainability, and a complimentary software solution developer for carbon and sustainability applications. The company is also pleased to announce its move into new corporate head offices located at Suite 1000 – 675 West Hastings Street in Vancouver in British Columbia, Canada. The company’s website is at www.offsetters.ca.
CEO Dr. James Tansey, states, “We are pleased to re-introduce our company to the market, under the Offsetters Climate Solutions banner, which captures the depth of talent and capacity that has come together through the merger of ERA, Offsetters and Carbon Credit Corp. Both present and future clients will benefit greatly from our ability to provide end to end solutions within these markets, which we expect will drive our continued growth and leadership in the carbon and sustainability space. Our new trading symbol, which is the symbol for carbon dioxide makes this focus abundantly clear.”
James Tansey, Ph.D., President and CEO
ERA Carbon Offsets Ltd.
About ERA Carbon Offsets Ltd.
As Canada’s largest and most diversified carbon management solutions company, ERA Carbon Offsets Ltd. helps organizations understand, reduce and offset their climate impact. Its team of industry leaders specializes in the origination, development and commercialization of high-quality carbon offset projects and is proud to also provide clients with a comprehensive offering of sustainability consultancy services. A merger of ERA Carbon Offsets and Offsetters, ERA Carbon Offsets Ltd. is based in Vancouver, Canada and has worked with over 150 of the world’s most prestigious organizations including Aimia, Vancity, lululemon athletica, Catalyst Paper, Harbour Air, HSE – Entega, and Shell Canada Limited. ERA is publicly listed company on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX VENTURE:ESR) and in Frankfurt:9EA. For more information, please visit us at www.offsetters.ca.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS: This document includes forward-looking statements as well as historical information. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the continued advancement of the company’s general business development, research development and the company’s development of forest-based carbon offsets. When used in this document, the words “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intent”, “may”, “project”, “plan”, “should” and similar expressions may identify forward-looking statements. Although ERA Carbon Offsets Ltd. believes that their expectations reflected in these forward looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risks and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements include fluctuations in the marketplace for the sale of carbon credits, the inability to implement corporate strategies, the ability to obtain financing and other risks disclosed in our filings made with Canadian Securities Regulators.
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Press release embargoed for 0001AM on Monday 4th March 2013
Parenting organisations and celebrities are backing a new campaign, Climate Week – Protect the Future, for parents to protect their children’s future by helping to prevent climate change.
The campaign launches today as part of Climate Week (4-10 March), Britain’s biggest environmental occasion, with over half a million people expected to attend 3,000 events across the UK. Supporters include the former UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan and the Prime Minister, David Cameron.
New research1 for Climate Week by Ipsos MORI shows that parenthood is a powerful trigger for concern about green issues. Two-thirds (66%) of mothers and fathers said that becoming a parent made them feel more strongly about protecting the environment. The campaign is backed by the UK’s largest charity for parents, NCT, and by Family Lives, which helps over a million children each year.
Belinda Phipps, Chief Executive of NCT said: “Having a baby makes you re-evaluate your priorities and realise that for the sake of their future we need to look after the planet we rely on now. Climate Week is a great opportunity to make some small changes which could make a huge difference.”
Model, fitness guru and mother Nell McAndrew, eight months pregnant, had the words “protect the future” written on her bump. She said “Becoming a parent makes you realise how important it is to protect the planet for future generations, and that’s why I’m supporting Climate Week.”
Pregnant campaign supporter Vanessa Doman also had her bump painted as a globe damaged by oil, showing that to safeguard the next generation from climate change we must use less fossil fuel.
People can also help to publicise the campaign by taking a photo of themselves displaying the words “Climate Week – Protect the Future” and making it their Facebook or Twitter photo during Climate Week.
Kevin Steele, Chief Executive of Climate Week said: “The campaigning of parents during Climate Week is helping it to be Britain’s biggest climate change campaign – an occasion when everyone can start to live and work in more sustainable ways.”
There are lots of other Climate Week activities – for example for schools, workplaces and community groups. People can register to take part in Britain’s biggest environmental competition, the team-based Climate Week Challenge. They can also run a Climate Week Swap event for people to exchange clothes and children’s toys they no longer want for great stuff that they do. For more information, visit www.climateweek.com, email [email protected] or call 020 3397 2601.
-Ends-
Notes to Editors
Photo caption 1: Nell McAndrew and Climate Week 2013 are calling on parent across the country to take part in Climate Week to ensure a sustainable future for the next generation
Photo caption 2: To mark the launch of Climate Week 2013, parents across to country are pledging to ‘Protect the Future’ to ensure a sustainable future for their children
About Climate Week (4-10 March 2013)
Climate Week is Britain’s biggest climate change campaign, inspiring a new wave of action to create a sustainable future. Each year, half a million people attend 3,000 events – visit www.climateweek.com to find out more.
Climate Week promotes ways that people can live and work more sustainably. It is an annual renewal of our ambition and confidence to combat climate change, and is for everyone wanting to do their bit to protect our planet. Climate Week is supported by over 200 national organisations and people such as the Prime Minister, David Cameron and Sir Paul McCartney.
About Climate Week’s partners
Climate Week’s Headline Partner is Andrex® Eco, Kimberly-Clark’s first truly pioneering sustainable toilet tissue product.
Voted Product of The Year, by UK consumers, Andrex® Eco is revolutionising perceptions that ‘eco’ toilet tissue can’t be both soft and top quality.
Climate Week’s Supporting Partners are Crown Paints, Ecotricity and Shields Environmental:
Crown Paints measures the carbon footprint of every product it manufactures.
Ecotricity is changing the way energy is made and used in Britain.
Shields Environmental is integrating the needs of business and the environment for the telecoms sector.
1Details of research
Ipsos MORI conducted an online poll of over 1,000 adults in in February 2013, of which 561 were parents. They were asked “To what extent does being a parent make you feel more strongly about protecting the environment for future generations?”. 30% said it made them feel a lot more strongly, 36% said it made them feel a little more strongly, 31% said it had no effect on how they felt about the environment and 3% said they didn’t know.
About NCT
NCT is the UK’s largest charity for parents. Each year the charity supports hundreds of thousands of parents through the transition to parenthood, offering expert information and trusted practical and emotional support through its website, helpline, a nationwide network of 300 local branches, antenatal and postnatal classes, breastfeeding counselling and peer support schemes.
San Diego Tribe Receives Solar Installations in 12 Homes, Reducing Energy Cost
SAN FRANCISCO – The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Regional Administrator Jared Blumenfeld today recognized nonprofit GRID Alternatives as a Climate Change Champion. The EPA Pacific Southwest Region’s Environmental Award was presented at a ceremony hosted by the Hopland Band of Pomo Indians in Hopland, California. GRID Alternatives has worked with various low income communities and tribes including the La Jolla Band of Luiseno Indians in San Diego, Calif. on the training and installation of solar panel systems.
“EPA applauds GRID Alternatives for championing clean technologies to offset the climate change impacts of greenhouse gas emissions,” said Blumenfeld. “This organization is a role model for how business can promote solar energy while equipping Californians with the skills they need to sustain this industry.”
GRID Alternatives has developed a solar affordable housing program to train and lead teams of community volunteers and job trainees to install solar electric systems generating financial benefits for low-income families, job training for local workers, and environmental benefits through the reduction of greenhouse gases. The company also provides renewable energy and energy efficiency services equipment and training to low-income communities in California.
The La Jolla Indian Reservation is a federal reservation of Luiseño Indians in Northern San Diego County, along the southern slopes of Mount Palomar. La Jolla has been working with GRID Alternatives for more than two years. So far, twelve solar panel systems have been installed on the homes of Tribal members with several more to come. The solar panel installations have reduced energy costs and have helped La Jolla work towards renewable energy development.
“The savings that our members have on their utility bills allow them to use that money for other needed living expenses,” said LaVonne Peck, Chairperson of the La Jolla Band of Luiseño Indians. “Thank you to GRID Alternatives for working to assist La Jolla and other Tribal Nations with solar installations on our homes.”
As of February 2013, GRID Alternatives has installed over 3,000 solar electric systems in homes, trained 11,700 community volunteers and job trainees on the theory and practice of installing solar systems, and has prevented over 250,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions through PV installations. Beneficiaries of these systems have included seniors on fixed incomes, veterans, and homeowners struggling with unemployed and underemployment, as well as low-income residents of more than 14 tribal communities throughout California.
More information about GRID Alternatives, headquartered in Oakland, Calif., may be found at: www.gridalternatives.org
The EPA Pacific Southwest Region’s Environmental Awards program acknowledges commitments and significant contributions to protecting the environment in California, Arizona, Nevada, Hawaii, Pacific Islands and tribal lands. Groups and individuals were selected from nominees received this year from businesses, government officials, tribes, media, academia, environmental organizations and community activists. For more information on the other 2012 award winners please visit: http://epa.gov/region9/awards
EMBARGO until 13.00 EST (Eastern Standard Time) Sunday 17 February 2013
The UK’s national synchrotron facility, Diamond Light Source, is now the first and only place in Europe where pathogens requiring Containment Level 3 – including serious viruses such as those responsible for AIDS, Hepatitis and some types of flu – can be analysed at atomic and molecular level using synchrotron light. This special light allows scientists to study virus structures at intense levels of detail and this new facility extends that capability to many viruses that have a major global impact on human and animal health. Studying pathogens in this way has the potential to open up new paths for the development of therapeutic treatments and vaccines.
Presenting at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS 2013) in Boston on the latest virus work undertaken at Diamond, Prof Dave Stuart – Life Sciences Director at Diamond Light Source and Professor of Structural Biology at Oxford University – launches the new lab,Crystal, which will help scientists delve into the inner workings of pathogens and uncover the mechanisms of infection. Prof. Stuart comments:
“Crystal provides unique facilities in Europe for the study of serious viruses. Nowhere in the world can structures be so readily solved with the speed and efficiency that is now available at Diamond. As such, we anticipate interest from a number of groups in the UK, including the Particle Imaging Centre in Oxford, which provides a suite of contained laboratories including a crystallisation laboratory, to support the preparation of sample prior to study at Diamond. This is great news for the UK research community, as the facility will be a resource with the potential to provide new pathways for treatment.”
Diamond, already has a strong track record of studying viruses at lower levels of containment. In 2012, scientists determined the structure of the virus that causes hand-foot-and-mouth disease, which can cause severe central nervous system disease in children and poses serious public health threats across the Asia-Pacific region. Some 1.7 million cases were reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health during 2010, and there is no vaccine or therapy available.
An Anglo-Chinese collaboration used the facilities at Diamond to solve the structure of the Human Enterovirus 71 (EV71), which is the root cause of the disease. Using synchrotron light, the team were able to visualise the virus in different states and collect a series of structures, from which they were able to uncover a detailed picture of the virus’s actions in sequence – rather than being a rigid object, the virus appears to actually “breathe”. Such visualisation requires specialist microscopes ten thousand times more powerful than standard laboratory microscopes.
This achievement creates new opportunities for therapies being developed. Prof Stuart explains:
“Together with our Chinese Colleagues, we have now uncovered the structure of EV71 and identified the process by which the virus spreads throughout cells in the human body. These findings can now be used to develop new treatments for hand-foot-and-mouth; and also directly translated to other viruses of the same family, including polio and some forms of the common cold.”
The solving of hand, foot and mouth virus demonstrates the potential impact that the new capabilities could have. Crystal at the Diamond synchrotron enables researchers to rapidly visualise viruses in their entirety and at incredible scales. The facility’s brilliant beams of X-rays allow scientists to study crystallised virus particles, and so produce a comprehensive 3D image of the virus structure. By identifying the virus structure in atomic detail, scientists can target research into vaccines and anti-viral drugs.
The facility is the only one of its kind in Europe and one of only two in the world. Dr Katherine McAuley, science leader for the facility concludes, “Crystal is a major advance, not just for the UK, but for Europe at large. Given the groundwork that has been performed at Diamond so far on viruses like the hand-foot-and-mouth, we are introducing a step change in research capabilities, so that more complex studies can be undertaken in a swift and effective way. The unique capabilities that the facility offers are expected to draw scientists from around the world, and establish the nation’s synchrotron as a hub of world-leading research into disease prevention.”
For more information and media enquiries, please contact Silvana Westbury 0044(0)7920594660 [email protected] or Isabelle Boscaro-Clarke 0044 (0)7990797916 [email protected] or the press office on 0044 (0)1235 778639.
About Diamond Light Source
• Diamond Light Source is funded by the UK Government via the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and by the Wellcome Trust.
• For more information about Diamond visit www.diamond.ac.uk
• Diamond generates extremely intense pin-point beams of synchrotron light of exceptional quality ranging from X-rays, ultra-violet and infrared. For example Diamond’s X-rays are around 100 billion times brighter than a standard hospital X-ray machine.
• Diamond Light Source is used by over 3,000 academic and industrial researchers across a wide range of disciplines including structural biology, health and medicine, solid-state physics, materials & magnetism, nanoscience, electronics, earth & environmental sciences, chemistry, cultural heritage, energy and engineering.
• Many of our everyday commodities that we take for granted, from food manufacturing to cosmetics, from revolutionary drugs to surgical tools, from computers to mobile phones, have all been developed or improved using synchrotron light.
• Diamond brings benefits to:
o Biology and medicine. For example, the fight against illnesses such as Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, osteoporosis and many cancers will benefit from the new research techniques available at Diamond.
o The physical and chemical sciences. For example, in the near future, engineers will be able to image their structure down to an atomic scale, helping them to understand the way impurities and defects behave and how they can be controlled.
o The Environmental and Earth sciences. For example, Diamond helps researchers to identify organisms that target specific types of contaminant in the environment which can potentially lead to identifying cheap and effective ways for cleaning polluted land.
Zebras do battle in one of the more memorable scenes in the BBC’s Africa series Photograph: BBC NHU
The BBC‘s natural history unit in Bristol is, rightly, respected across the world. No one else can match the professionalism, vision and majesty of its epic, beguiling programmes about the planet’s wildlife. For anyone looking for a reason to justify the BBC licence fee, look no further that the unit’s output.
Its latest series – Africa – concluded this week on BBC1. The last episode was devoted to examining how the continent’s wildlife was at a “pivotal moment in their history”. Sir David Attenborough, the series presenter and narrator, explained to viewers what pressures many endangered species now face as they come into conflict with the needs of local human populations. He also devoted a section of the programme to the challenges presented by climate change.
But it was during this section that – like a meerkat sensing danger – my ears pricked. Set against footage of elephants walking beneath Mt Kilimanjaro, Attenborough said:
Africa‘s climate is certainly changing. Some parts of the continent have become 3.5C hotter in the past 20 years.
(For UK-based viewers, here’s a direct link to the quote on the BBC iPlayer. The link will expire on Sunday, 17 February.)
I’d never heard this arresting claim before. If that rate of temperature rise continued over, say, a century, then those parts of Africa would see a deathly rise of 17.5C?! Could that claim really be true?
I also noticed some people on Twitter asking the same question. So the following morning I called the BBC press office and asked where this information about a 3.5C temperature rise over 20 years had come from.
I was told that it came from a report published in 2006 by the “Working Group on Climate Change”. The full title of the report was “Africa – Up in Smoke 2: The second report on Africa and global warming from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development” and it was “written and compiled” by Oxfam and the New Economics Foundation, with the support of a wide range of environmental and development NGOs such as Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, WWF, Cafod and the Institute of Development Studies.
The maximum temperature in Kericho, a highland area in the Rift Valley province where most of Kenya’s tea exports are grown, has increased by 3.5°C during the past 20 years. In Lamu, on Kenya’s north east coast near Somalia, the maximum temperature has increased by more than 3°C since the 1940s.11 The UK’s Hadley Centre says temperature increases over many areas of Africa will be double the global average.
The footnotes said that the 3.5C claim was taken from a Christian Aid report, also published in 2006, called Climate of Poverty. On page 30 of that report (pdf), it said:
The rapidity with which glaciers are melting shows that Kenya is getting warmer. This is confirmed by measurements on the ground. For example, the maximum temperature in Kericho, a highland area in the Rift Valley province where most of Kenya’s tea exports are grown, has increased by 3.5°C during the past 20 years. In Lamu, on Kenya’s north-eastern coast near Somalia, the maximum temperature has increased by more than 3°C since the 1940s.
Again, I looked to the footnotes to see where this claim came from. But it just said: “Conversation with authors; February 2006.” It was unclear who the authors had conversed with. (I am still trying to reach the co-author who wrote that specific paragraph.) Either side of that claim, the authors quote Prof Eric Odada of the University of Nairobi and Peter Ambenje of the Kenya Meteorological Department. I have emailed both of them to seek their assistance in clearing this up, but have yet to hear back from either of them. (If I do, I will append their message to this post.)
But I was also curious about why Attenborough would have used a somewhat obscure factoid buried deep within a report published by an NGO as long ago as 2006 to make such an arresting statement within a primetime BBC natural history programme in 2013. And what of the source report’s strange reliance on the term “maximum temperatures” rather than the more normal (and comprehensible) “average temperatures”?
So I went back to the BBC press office and asked it whether the production team, or Attenborough himself, had double-checked and verified this claim before broadcast. I also asked if the narration was scripted and researched by someone else for Attenborough to then read out, or whether he had done it all himself.
A few hours later, once it had spoken to the programme’s production team, it sent me this statement:
There is widespread acknowledgement within the scientific community that the climate of Africa has been changing. The programme makers made use of a number of sources and statistics to illustrate this, in this instance from a report by The Working Group on Climate Change and Development and supported by published data from Nasa.
…and confirmed that the research for the programme was carried out by “production”, not David Attenborough himself.
But the Nasa link also puzzled me. It is titled: “Science Briefs: Warming Climate is Changing Life on Global Scale. By Cynthia Rosenzweig — December 2008″
Again, why was the BBC relying on a somewhat obscure Nasa article published as long ago as 2008? Why not just draw upon the very latest scientific data?
The article itself supplies a global map (pdf) which shows regional variations in temperature. For Africa, it does show some regional temperature rises – not significantly over Kenya, it has to be said – but the information is very rudimentary and vague. It says it uses “linear trends of surface air temperature (HadCRUT3) between 1970 and 2004″.
Either way, this does not represent the “20 year” period mentioned in the Attenborough narration. But, nonetheless, I asked the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit – who, along with the Met Office Hadley Centre, maintain the HadCRUT3 dataset (since updated to HadCRUT4) – for their own take on this specific claim.
The claim about African temperatures (“some parts of the continent have become 3.5C hotter in the past 20 years”) is based on maps from this peer-reviewed paper published in the journal Nature: Rosenzweig et al. (2008) Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 453, 353-357, doi:10.1038/nature06937.
The map does show results from our dataset, HadCRUT3, for the period 1970-2004. So that’s a 35-year period not 20 years. Also the top colour on the scale represents warming trends over the 25 years of between 2 and 3.5 degrees C – they could be anywhere within that range, not necessarily at the top of the range and still be shown by the same red colour. Also note that the two red colours are quite hard to distinguish in their figure, the slightly paler ones are for warming trends in the range 1-2 degC.
I’ve done a trend analysis using our latest, updated dataset. This is HadCRUT4 and runs through to the end of 2012. These twofiles show the warming and cooling trends in each of the boxes that we split the world into. One file is for the global picture while the second zooms into the African region. There are three pages in each – one covering the last 20 years (because the quote above said 20 years), one covering 1970-present (because their original [Nasa] source started in 1970), and one covering the last 100 years (to give a longer-term perspective). On each page are 5 plots: 4 seasons (identified by the initials of the months, so MAM=March April May) and the larger one is the trend in the annual average temperatures.
Note first that there are large white areas where there is insufficient data (or even no data). For these calculations I required at least 2/3rds of the data values to be present, otherwise I left it white. I assume the rate of cooling or warming during the years with missing values was the same as for the years where we do have data.
For the last 20 years there is a paucity of data over Africa. In African regions with data there is only one box where warming in one season is above 3 degC. More boxes show warming in some seasons between 2 and 3 degC. No African boxes show warming above 2 degC in the annual average temperatures.
Taking the 1970-2012 period (page 2) we find much better coverage. Note that my analysis required 2/3rds data to be present, therefore there could be missing data in some years (e.g. the last decade) but I still estimate a trend from the remaining years. Now there are more boxes with warming between 2 and 3 degC, and in the category above 3 degC, in individual seasons and also some in the annual means. However, those in the 3 degC category have incomplete data and shouldn’t be relied upon heavily. The longer period gives more scope for greater warming (note that I am showing the overall warming for each period, not the rate of warming – with the same rate of warming, the amount of warming occurring over the 43-year period would clearly be greater than over a 20-year period, so this must be borne in mind when interpreting the maps).
Taking the century-scale view, we can really say little about temperature changes in the interior of Africa (with a few exceptions). Coastal changes are typically warming by around 1 degC. So I would say that our data do not support the claim of 3.5 degC warming in the last 20 years in some regions of Africa.
Taking a longer period since 1970 does suggest warming of up to 3 degC in some regions, and possibly above 3 degC but with considerable uncertainty due to incomplete temperature records. I would add the caveat that Africa, especially away from the coasts, has some of the sparsest measurements in the world. Coverage is incomplete and even where we have data it is based on fewer individual weather stations than is typical in many other continents. Our data do show overall warming in Africa, but with considerable uncertainties in the magnitude.
3.45pm update: Dr Tim Osborn has emailed me to say, on reflection, he wishes to clarify the sentence I had emphasised in bold. This has been changed. It originally said: “So I would say that our data do not provide very strong support for the claim of 3.5 degC warming in the last 20 years in some regions of Africa.”
(My thanks to Dr Tim Osborn for taking the time to provide such a detailed response. My emphasis in bold)
Christian Aid has subsequently sent me this report (pg 12, pdf) published by the United Nations Development Programme in 2008 which shows a temperature increase in Kericho of about 4C between 1960 and 2004.
But however you approach it, Attenborough’s claim that “some parts of the African continent have become 3.5C hotter in the past 20 years” appears to fall down upon further analysis.
Personally, I find it bizarre – and frustrating – that an otherwise exemplary series, which took years to film, has been tainted – in my mind, at least – by such a sloppy piece of research. Why rely primarily on a seven-year-old report published an NGO? Why not just directly ask climatologists who would have the latest available data to hand? And how did the BBC’s researchers even come across such an obscure fact? You get the sense they simply Googled “Africa temperature rise” and went for the first thing they found.
Update: 9 February The BBC has informed me that it is now removing this reference from tomorrow’s repeat of the episode. It gave me this statement:
There is widespread acknowledgement within the scientific community that the climate of Africa has been changing as stated in the programme. We accept the evidence for 3.5 degrees increase is disputable and the commentary should have reflected that, therefore that line has been removed from Sunday’s repeat and the iplayer version replaced.
